There is no question of offering the Hamas leadership the chance to escape with their thousands of followers to some country prepared to accept them. … Shin Bet chief Ronen Bar said those leaders of the Hamas organization responsible for planning, organizing, and perpetrating the invasion and pogrom of October 7, would be hunted down and eliminated, even if it took years, and no matter where they were living or wherever they might choose to settle after their defeat. – Neville Teller
On November 30, The Wall Street Journal (WSJ), in what appears to have been a world exclusive, published a detailed report of discussions said to have taken place between US and Israeli officials about possible plans for shortening the war in Gaza.
The report indicates that these official level discussions are following up options suggested by Israel’s political and military leadership of ways to disempower Hamas. One favored approach turns to a precedent set in 1982. At that time, the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) under Yasser Arafat had entrenched inside Lebanon, and then-prime minister Ariel Sharon had authorized Israeli forces to invade and advance into the country. In an attempt to dislodge the PLO, Israel was besieging the capital Beirut. The US brokered a deal with Israel under which US, French, and Italian troops entered Beirut and oversaw the departure of Arafat and his organization for a new base in Tunisia.
There is, of course, no question of offering the Hamas leadership the chance to escape with their thousands of followers to some country prepared to accept them. Planners are aware that, though neither Hamas nor the PLO have any qualms about the use of terrorist tactics, the PLO is essentially a secular political organization, while Hamas is a jihadist group inspired by extremist Islamist philosophy. Hamas, unlike the PLO, would not respond favorably to a deal involving expulsion from what they consider their land.
The idea under consideration is to capture and expel thousands of lower-level Hamas fighters from the Gaza Strip, thus cutting away Hamas’s power base—namely the tens of thousands of Hamas fighters it controls. If achieved, this would undoubtedly contribute to the collapse of Hamas and shorten the war. It would also prevent the group from ever retaking power, thus enabling Gaza to become governable in the future.
The process may have started. In a statement released on December 11, the IDF announced: “More than 500 Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad terrorists have been apprehended by the IDF and Shin Bet (Israel Security Agency) over the past month and transferred for further questioning.”
A Munich-type operation confirmed by Shin Bet chief
As for the Hamas leadership, the WSJ had yet another revelation up its sleeve. On December 1, it asserted that, according to Israeli officials, the intelligence services were preparing a covert operation akin to that following the Munich Olympics massacre in 1972.
The report was later confirmed by Shin Bet chief Ronen Bar in a domestic broadcast on December 3. Those leaders of the Hamas organization responsible for planning, organizing, and perpetrating the invasion and pogrom of October 7, he said, would be hunted down and eliminated, even if it took years, and no matter where they were living or wherever they might choose to settle after their defeat.
The WSJ, citing unnamed senior Israeli and US officials, says another option floated by the Israel Defense Forces, is to form a “Gaza Restoration Authority” backed by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, tasked with rebuilding a Hamas-free Gaza.
A major obstacle to this plan, the report says, is a fundamental disagreement between Israel and the US about whether the Palestinian Authority (PA) would, or should, be part of such a solution. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, and a number of Washington spokespersons, have said repeatedly that the settled US vision of the post-war future is the unification of the governance of Gaza and the West Bank under the PA, leading to peace negotiations with a two-state solution as their goal.
This unchanged US view was repeated by Vice President Kamala Harris, speaking at the COP28 summit in Dubai on December 2. Post-war reconstruction efforts in Gaza, she said, must be undertaken “in the context of a clear political horizon for the Palestinian people toward a state of their own, led by a revitalized Palestinian Authority… ”
Netanyahu, however, has made it clear that Israel would not agree to allow the PA, as presently constituted, to have any part in the future governance of Gaza. On December 12, after a conversation with US President Joe Biden, he virtually rejected the US aspiration of an eventual two-state solution. He would not allow Gaza, he said, to be ruled by those who “teach, support, or fund terrorism,” thereby ruling out both Hamas and the Fatah-run PA.
Biden sees the right-wing elements in Netanyahu’s government behind this. In a speech on December 12, he is reported as saying that Netanyahu “has to change this government,” adding that Israel ultimately “can’t say no” to a Palestinian state.
A problem given little emphasis so far in the media is that, in addition to Hamas, other groups, such as Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), control thousands of gunmen who not only took part in the October 7 atrocities but are also holding hostages. On November 27, CNN, based on a highly-placed diplomatic source, reported that more than 40 hostages taken from Israel into Gaza on October 7 are not currently in the custody of Hamas, but were being held by PIJ or other unidentified groups or individuals. If accurate, this report complicates not only any future truce agreement, but also the wider issue of what an Israeli victory in the Gaza Strip might mean.
On November 28, the armed wing of Palistinian Islamic Jihad, the Al-Quds Brigades, said that it had handed over “some civilian detainees” as part of an exchange with Israel. And indeed, together with Hamas gunmen, fighters from PIJ were seen handing over 17-year-old Mia Leimberg. This was the first time that PIJ, or any other party, had publicly acknowledged being involved in negotiations.
As regards future truce agreements, the terms have so far required Hamas to hand over hostages in exchange for Palestinian prisoners held by Israel. They depend on Hamas actually holding the hostages to fulfill their part of the agreement. If Hamas does not, and cannot persuade other groups to participate in any future deal, the only recourse left to Israel would be to locate the hostages themselves by achieving a complete victory over opposing forces in the Strip. Subsequently, Israel would have to treat all militant groups and their leaders exactly as how they plan to deal with Hamas and its leadership.
Whichever way they look, the future for Hamas, its allies, and their leaders seems bleak. Perhaps on October 7, they bit off rather more than they could chew. – The Jerusalem Post, 18 December 2023
› Neville Teller is an author, dramatist, and the Middle East correspondent for Eurasia Review.
Filed under: gaza, israel, palestine | Tagged: hamas leaders, islamic terrorism, israel-palestine conflict, israeli intelligence, national security |
BHARATA BHARATI 
Antony Blinken urges nations to demand Hamas surrender – Mint – New Delhi – 22 December 2023
United States Secretary of State Antony Blinken has sharply criticised countries for not pressuring Hamas to give up its weapons, cease hiding behind civilians, and surrender. Raising a question, Blinken said that many nations are calling for an end to the current conflict, but how is it possible that there are no demands made of the aggressor?
While addressing a press briefing, he said, “What is striking to me is that even as, again, we hear many countries urging the end to this conflict, which we would all like to see, I hear virtually no one demanding of Hamas that it stop hiding behind civilians, that it lay down its arms, that it surrender. This is over tomorrow if Hamas does that. This would have been over a month ago, six weeks ago, if Hamas had done that,” as quoted by news agency ANI.
Antony Blinken warns ceasefire in Gaza would allow Hamas to regroup, repeat attacks – Mint – New Delhi – 6 November 2023
Amid a call for a ceasefire after Israel’s military intensified its assault against Hamas, the United States Secretary of State Antony Blinken has said that a ceasefire in Gaza would give Hamas the opportunity to allow it to regroup and carry out similar attacks to the one it carried out on 7 October that attack killed more than 1,400 people.
Israel has launched a massive bombing campaign on the Hamas-ruled Gaza Strip after the Palestinian militants staged the worst attack in Israel’s history.
Blinken’s comments came at a news conference in Amman, alongside his Jordanian and Egyptian counterparts who have repeatedly urged for an immediate cessation of hostilities.
“A ceasefire now would simply leave Hamas in place, able to regroup and repeat what it did on October 7,” Blinken said at the conference. “No nation, none of us would accept that … So it is important to reaffirm Israel’s right and its obligation to defend itself.”
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Hamas: Dead men tunneling – Jonathan Sweet & Mark Toth – The Hill – Washington – 21 December 2023
Hamas is not yet running on empty. But the ISIS-like terrorist organization is on the run from the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) in the Gaza Strip, and globally from Mossad—Israel’s far-reaching Institute for Intelligence and Special Operations. Consequently, Hamas now finds itself to be a group of dead men—literally and figuratively—tunneling across the region to try and survive to fight another day.
IDF officials confirm upwards of 5,000 Hamas fighters have been killed—approximately 17 percent of the Islamic militant group’s pre-Oct. 7 force of 30,000 men. Senior Hamas military leaders in Gaza, including Mohammed Deif and Yahya Sinwar, top Israel’s kill list. Hamas’s political leaders, such as chairman of the Hamas Political Bureau Ismail Haniyeh, are being actively pursued by Mossad.
Sinwar, the alleged mastermind behind the terror attack against Israel, is believed to have now fled southward from the ruins of Gaza City “by hiding in a humanitarian convoy” to the Hamas stronghold of Khan Younis, Gaza’s second largest city in the southern part of the strip. On Sunday, the IDF dropped leaflets over the city offering a $1 million reward for the whereabouts of Sinwar, his brother Mohmmad, Rafa’a Salame, and Deif.
The last thing Washington or Brussels needs to be doing now is putting pressure on Israel to agree to a ceasefire. As one unnamed U.S. senior official aptly noted, Sinwar’s “days are numbered,” as are those of Hamas.
Jerusalem is coming for Sinwar and Hamas. Channeling former Israeli Prime Minister Golda Meir and her “Wrath of God” operation that targeted the Palestinian perpetrators of the 1972 massacre of 11 Israeli athletes at the Munich Olympics, Shin Bet and Mossad in late October established a new unit named Nili, a Hebrew acronym for “The Eternity of Israel Will Not Lie.”
“Nili,” as a kinetic task force, is committed to “hunting down and eliminating every individual who played a role in the massacre” of Oct. 7. Nili is already having an immediate effect. There are reports that key Hamas political and military leaders are fleeing “their luxury safe haven in Doha, the Qatari capital.”
Salah al-Arouri, the head of Hamas’ “military wing” in the Palestinian Authority-controlled West Bank, appears to have fled Beirut opting to decamp to Turkey. Khaled Meshal, Haniyeh’s predecessor, has largely stayed under the radar since mid-October. For now, Moussa Abu Marzouk remains in Qatar.
Abu Marzouk, the deputy chair of the Hamas Political Bureau, obliquely hinted at recognizing Israel in a Dec. 13 interview with Al-Monitor in exchange for Israel halting its war against Hamas. When asked about Israel, he said “You should follow the official stance. The official stance is that the [Palestine Liberation Organization] has recognized the state of Israel.”
It is doubtful Abu Marzouk is serious. Rather, he is likely confronting the growing reality that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu intends to follow through on his promise to destroy Hamas at whatever cost necessary—and is playing for time now that Hamas finds itself in survival mode. As Ronen Bar, Shin Bet’s director commented, “We will look for them everywhere: in Gaza, in the West Bank, in Lebanon, in Turkey, in Qatar, everywhere. It will take a few years, but we will do it.”
Tea and sympathy are all Hamas is ostensibly getting from its “friends,” and that includes Turkey’s Recep Erdoğan. Despite inflammatory rhetoric including accusing Israel of “committing “massacres” in Gaza” and arguing Hamas is “fighting for liberation,” Turkey’s overall diplomatic and economic relationship has remained largely unchanged since Israel began its military operations in Gaza.
Yet Hamas sees an opening and it is coming from a very unexpected direction: Washington. As the exigencies of the 2024 presidential election cycle take hold, there is growing animosity between the Biden Administration and Israel on the tactics employed to bring the war to a conclusion.
Biden is now urging restraint from Israel in Gaza. National Security Council Strategic Communications Coordinator John Kirby has said Washington is trying to persuade Jerusalem to transition from “high intensity to lower intensity military operations” in order to reduce the rate of Palestinian civilian casualties. A senior IDF official responded, “Israel does not need to be told by the United States to avoid killing civilians.”
Hamas bears responsibility for the high civilian death rate in Gaza, just as it is responsible for civilian deaths in Israel. Unnamed Israeli military officials estimate that for every Hamas fighter killed, two Palestinian civilians have been killed. Unlike Sinwar and Deif, Israel is not targeting noncombatants. Hamas, however, is staging kinetic operations against the IDF and launching rocket attacks on Israel from civilian-use buildings and facilities in Gaza—schools, hospitals, mosques, and the like.
Conversely, Hamas is endeavoring to markedly increase and leverage Palestinian civilian casualties in violation of the Geneva Conventions. Sinwar, Deif, and Haniyeh are trying to obtain at the negotiating table what they cannot achieve militarily: a long-term ceasefire that preserves Hamas’ existence.
If future generations of Palestinians are to be spared the fate now tragically befalling civilians in Gaza, then Hamas must be eradicated in the here and now. No lasting two-state solution will ever be possible as long as Hamas and its leaders survive.
There are times in history when a clear win is the only path to peace. Now is such a time in the Middle East. As Netanyahu has stated many times, “Hamas must be destroyed.”
> Col. (Ret.) Jonathan Sweet served 30 years as a military intelligence officer and led the U.S. European Command Intelligence Engagement Division from 2012 to 2014. Mark Toth, an economist and entrepreneur, is a former board member of the World Trade Center, St. Louis.
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