“The BJP, instead of trying to craft a secular face and hoping to regain the 8 per cent of the minority vote it lost in 2004, needs to consolidate its Hindu equity by 2014. Inclusive secularism is redundant. Obama won by polarising America. Narendra Modi is sure to polarise the Indian popular vote. Those who attack Gadkari are afraid he may support Modi for PM; statistical analysis shows that Modi could boost the BJP’s vote share by over 25 per cent.” – Ravi Shankar Ettath
The arithmetic of political ambition is what generates the numbers of triumph. There is a lesson in Barack Obama’s second victory for the BJP. An astounding 93 per cent of black voters and 69 per cent of Latino voters in America voted for Obama. In 1998, with Ram as its mascot, the BJP won 26 per cent of the popular vote. In 2009, it had fallen to 18.8 per cent. Eleven per cent of Muslims voted for the BJP in 2004, an improvement of 8 per cent. Now with Ram Jethmalani as its mascot, and Nitin Gadkari as a bigger enemy than the Congress, the BJP seems set on a suicidal course of action for 2014. Obama went to war with the Republicans, with the full confidence that he didn’t need the minority white vote; in fact, he is the only US president who got elected even after losing the white vote by double digits.
Hence, the BJP, instead of trying to craft a secular face and hoping to regain the 8 per cent of the minority vote it lost in 2004, needs to consolidate its Hindu equity by 2014. Inclusive secularism is redundant. Obama won by polarising America. Narendra Modi is sure to polarise the Indian popular vote. Those who attack Gadkari are afraid he may support Modi for PM; statistical analysis shows that Modi could boost the BJP’s vote share by over 25 per cent. Muslims comprise one-eighth of the Indian population, and Muslim hostility cost the BJP only 0.36 per cent of the national vote in 2004. Ironically, opinion polls show that Muslim support for Modi in Gujarat has gone up from 14 per cent to 26 per cent.
The great surrealist Salvador Dali said that intelligence without ambition is a bird without wings. The BJP’s political canvas is becoming increasingly surrealistic as the prime ministerial ambitions of its leaders are destroying the intelligence needed to retain and enlarge its committed vote base. Gadkari has based his 2014 strategy on the principle that politics is not based on seniority, but on the charisma of a leader to win votes and a track record that proves efficient, modern government. However, the BJP that prides itself as a party with a difference is proving to be a party with too many differences. While the Congress defends the Gandhi Parivar on yet-to-be-proved charges of corruption and shady land deals, the BJP is falling over its own two left feet to opportunistically snipe at its own president from a moral high ground provided by a feverishly ambitious loose cannon named Arvind Kejriwal.
Loose cannons were what destroyed the Republican chances in America’s 45th election. The GOP lost America by pandering to the white Bible-belt and ignoring the new, multi-cultural US. The majority of Americans see Republicans as anti-women, anti-poor, racist and pro-big business. Republican Senator Todd Akin caused a public uproar by claiming that women can’t get pregnant if they are raped. Senator Richard Mourdock said babies born of rape are a “gift from God”; it’s no wonder that 68 per cent of single women voted for Obama. Obama is clear about his constituency—women, Latinos, blacks, gays and the educated white middle class—which brought him to power first in 2008 and now in 2012. Nine in 10 blacks, seven in 10 Hispanics and three in four Asians voted for him. So did 70 per cent of Jewish voters despite his oscillating stand on Israel versus Iran. Exit polls showed the non-white vote share increased to 28 per cent of which 80 per cent went to Bo.
More than 80 per cent Indians are Hindus. It is time the BJP took a hard look at its own constituency that brought it to power in 1998. From ‘Yes We Can’, Obama’s new slogan is ‘The Best is Yet to Come’. The BJP has to be forward-looking than see enemies within; it has to recognise what’s best for it instead of undermining its best chance, and simply hope for the best. – The New Indian Express, 11 Nov. 2012
» Ravi Shankar Etteth is an author and columnist for The New Indian Express. Contact him at ravi@newindianexpress.com.
Filed under: india | Tagged: ayodhya, BJP, christian vote, communalism, corruption, democracy, economy, hindu, hindu vote, history, india, indian parliment, indian politics, l. k. advani, minority vote, muslim vote, narendra modi, nitin gadkari, politics, psychological warfare, religion, secularism, US politics, values, vote share |
BHARATA BHARATI 
Why we Hindus are suffering for so long. when did we tried BJP AT National level. Mr. Vajapyee was in coalition with other parties. That is why I have been telling everyone that we Hindus are in Majority and still been ruled by miniorrity. Why can’t we forget for our Nation sake our caste, Language,Region and Vote for BJP overwhelmingly and bring them into power and see what they can do. Why don’t we wake up now. when we have everything right in front of us the Corruption. Price Rise, Insecurity of we Hindus in our own motherland. We can not discard until we haven’t tried.
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IS, well said. I accept your view point. An unknown devil is probably better than the known one. We don’t have much to loose, in trying this out.
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IS is right. Good economics and better living conditions are the best hope now. Wooing the Hindu vote alone is hazardous, since the Hindu vote is already fractured. Kerala is a good example. While the Muslims vote for their candidate and the Christians vote for the Congress, the Hindus vote either for Congress or the Marxists.
At the moment we have no alternative to Congress and the motley crew of the Third Front. So, we have to back the BJP, with Modi as the candidate for PM. A Hindu party by itself will not gain power, but they can support the BJP.
This can work out as as a strategy. Let the BJP continue on its own course, but the Hindu voters must team up and throw their weight in.
What is wrong with the Hindu voter that he/she should be ‘wooed’ for heaven’s sake ?
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I take your point. Hindu leaders are very good at pretending that their excusing of Muslim totalitarian ideology and bad conduct is a clever strategy. I have heard it many times. Hindu leaders are always the first to say “Islam is a religion of peace” and “terrorists have no religion” when they know both statements are false (and can be shown to be false from the Koran and life of Muhammad himself). But self-deception is the Hindu “strength” even when it proves their undoing time and time again.
Modi may not turn out to be a Hindu leader especially if he gains power, as the demand for compromise will be overwhelming. But we have no choice, and in our current predicament the devil we DON’T know may be better than the devil we DO know (to reverse the adage). Can it get any worse than it is for Hindus today? And Modi has proved himself to be a good administrator (I have travelled extensively through Gujarat by bus and have seen the changes myself). Good economics and better living conditions does have its positive merits.
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we hindhus even though we in majority but we are minority within the minority. that is why the country is ruled by minority people for the last 45 years. we never bother self, social and nation conscious. therefore we are always ruled by minority and dalith people agumbebhat
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I do not know if Narendra Modi is going to prove a Hindu leader. What creates doubt in mind is his sharing dais with Muslim leaders. Besides, he has not shown any sign of realizing the predatory character of Islam (also Christianity) which to me is the only thing required to solve the Muslim (or Christian) problem in India. And I am not one who is going to accept such hobnobbing with Muslim leaders in the name of strategy. I have learnt it from SRG that no strategy can ever be a replacement for truth.
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The article is low on substance and high on rehtoric. OBAMA Chalisa. Wait for another 4 years and see what happens next. Americans are shrewd people. Obama won the presidential race but republicans won House of Representatives. So that effective check on Obama’s financial policies could be exercised. It these racial biases were so pronounced the democractes should have won in House of Representatives as well to make Obama’s life easy. But no they want economy to be handled well.
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Good idea! But assuming there is a Hindu vote, who would the Hindus vote for? There is no Hindu party or party that represents Hindu values. The BJP, once thought to be a Hindu party, has proved itself to be a clone of the Congress party. It is in the process of self-destructing. The party president has taken refuge in the jungle to save himself from other party leaders, who have already destroyed his reputation and now want his chair.
Narendra Modi, who might prove to be a Hindu leader, should dump the BJP and form his own party if he wants a place in national politics.
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